AI and the Collapse of Work
Mo Gawdat’s stark forecast: Our 21st Century warning - we have no idea what's coming
The world is changing so quickly that even my writing can’t keep up. I had an entirely different editorial plan for this week—until I listened to Mo Gawdat’s latest interview.
Gawdat, the former Chief Business Officer of Google X, isn’t a hype man or a detached theorist. He’s been in the room where these decisions about AI are made. And in his own words, the next 15 years will be “hell before heaven.”
That isn’t a phrase he drops casually. For him, it means mass job loss, the collapse of the middle class, and capitalism itself being forced into a complete overhaul.
This isn’t a “someday” future—it’s already unfolding. Most commentary (mine included) tends to soften the edges. Gawdat doesn’t. He is blunt: the middle class will vanish. Capitalism as we know it will break. And no, a wave of shiny “new jobs” isn’t coming to replace the ones being devoured by AI. Take that in, read it again.
If you’re still reading, you’re probably asking the same questions I did:
What does dystopia actually look like? Will real estate values collapse? Will we all be unemployed? Homeless? And the one most people whisper but rarely ask aloud—how do I actually make money in this future? Like, what are we talking about? This seems too dark, it must be ridiculous and the words of a disturbed person. I get it.
So I thought I would dive in, do some research and break it down for us. It’s what “could” happen IF we don’t get involved now to stop it. Mo thinks it is happening, but I hold out a slim chance we can stop it. Regardless, here is my interpretation based on my research as to what Mo Gawdat is saying.
What Does Dystopia Actually Look Like?
Forget the Hollywood cliché of robots storming the streets. Dystopia will arrive not with violence but with suffocation. A tightening net. Every purchase, movement, and interaction tracked—not just as they are now, but completely.
In this new world, compliance becomes currency. Your access to income—or even your identity—will depend on staying “within bounds.” Step out of line, and your digital tether cuts. But what does that really mean? It looks like this - what Trump is doing now with Universities, migrant workers, and some states, and apply it to everyone and everything we do. My evaluation: It’s not a reach.
Picture society split in two:
A thin elite who own and control the technology.
Everyone else is living on some form of Universal Basic Income (UBI - every adult receives ~$60k annually).
Work will no longer be the primary structure of daily life. For many, that means isolation, purposelessness, and mental health collapse.
The frog in the boiling pot story. That’s how it will arrive. Quietly, steadily, until freedom feels like a memory. And if you think that’s far-fetched, take one step back: tanks in U.S. streets, journalists silenced, tax laws tilted toward billionaires. major media outlets silenced. If you had told someone in 1999 that this was America in 2025, they wouldn’t have believed you.
Will Real Estate Values Collapse?
Not everywhere—but the myth of “real estate always goes up” will end.
Regions tied to middle-class jobs will see demand crater, and prices with it.
Wealthy enclaves and global hubs will thrive, insulated by capital.
UBI may place a floor under values, but the dream of steady appreciation is gone.
The new housing market will split: luxury zones for the few, stagnation or decline for everyone else. It’s already happening. The west coast and northeast coast housing markets have exploded in the last 10 years, making it near impossible for most young couples to buy a starter home. Want to live in SoCal? Be prepared for a $1.2 Million dollar number to begin your search. But if you are interested in a home in the middle of the country, not near any financial capital zones, prices are better.
Will We All Be Unemployed?
Not exactly. But the meaning of “employment” is about to be shattered.
White-collar and service work will shrink dramatically—AI already outperforms analysts, paralegals, marketers, and customer service teams. It’s already happening, just ask anyone looking for white-collar jobs these days.
What remains are deeply human roles: therapists, nurses, caregivers, coaches, leaders who build trust. This is good news for those fields.
Work will shift from survival—“I need this job to eat”—to meaning—“I choose this to matter.” This is a huge shift in thinking for most people.
That sounds liberating in the long run. But in the short term? Especially in America, where identity is welded to career? It’s going to feel like collapse.
Already, I hear stories from former students and peers who’ve applied for thousands of jobs. No callbacks. Not even rejections. Just silence. Why? Because the hiring gatekeepers aren’t human anymore—they’re algorithms.
This also means a significant shift for millions of well educated people when choosing “how do I matter” and “how does this new world work for me”?
Will We All Be Homeless?
No—but inequality in housing will expand. UBI could prevent mass homelessness, but it won’t prevent segregation. Imagine vast stretches of low-cost, low-opportunity housing, contrasted with insulated luxury bubbles.
The real risk isn’t millions on the street. It’s millions warehoused, dependent, and cut off from upward mobility. That is how you build revolution—or resignation. Either way, it’s combustible. My evaluation: This is what concerns me the most. If we don’t have leaders and laws in place to protect the majority of citizens, then revolutions or upheavals become more of a possibility.
This is the area combined with the shift in employment that is the most volatile for society. It requires talented, trustable leaders, which at the moment we don’t have. And is why Gawdat is sounding the alarm bells. The current billionaires, business, and political leaders are untrustable to say the least.
How Do I Make Money in This Future?
The quiet question behind all of this.
Gawdat’s warning makes one thing clear: labor will lose value. If you want to thrive, you need to shift from worker to owner, from employee to adaptable human.
Own assets, not just skills. Resilient real estate, tech shares, intellectual property.
Leverage AI, don’t fight it. One person with AI can replace a team; those who embrace it will carve niches.
Double down on the human. Emotional intelligence, persuasion, trust, creativity—skills AI can’t replace.
Stay radically adaptable. Lifelong learning isn’t optional. It’s survival.
This isn’t new. Since Reagan, policy has tilted capital over labor. Since Trump, it’s accelerated. What’s coming isn’t a change—it’s the completion of that trajectory. My evaluation: That’s what the AOC’s of the world are fighting about. And why the billionaires or those in the dark of what is coming dislike her so much. She is pulling the curtain back and exposing them, trying to motivate the masses to prevent this from happening. So labeling her as a “radical” is a centuries long strategy. People like AOC stand in their way.
The Fork in the Road
Here’s what I think the key to his message is: AI itself is not the villain. The danger is in leadership—corporate, political, institutional. He was “in the room”, he knows the plan. Put super-intelligent tools in the hands of foolish or corrupt leaders, and dystopia is inevitable.
But Gawdat insists heaven is still possible: freedom from drudgery, universal healthcare, equality made real.
That future isn’t sci-fi. It’s a decision. And the window to decide—probably in the next few election cycles—is closing.
That’s why I’m writing, and why you’re reading. I am 100% not trying to panic anyone or be an extremist. It is not time to panic, but to prepare.
Take a deep breath. Read, listen, learn. Do not check out. Support leaders and businesses that care about humans, not just capital. And start preparing for the world that’s arriving faster than we want to admit.
Because this is our Captain Flint moment. In Black Sails (on Netflix now), the former British Royal Naval Officer turned pirate, Captain Flint (real person), warns all the pirates and citizens of the New World: “You have no idea what is coming.” He was right, he had been “in the room”, he knew. When empires want something, they take it.
Maybe Mo Gawdat is our Captain Flint. Maybe this is the warning we ignore at our own peril.
Now is not the time to play politics or cave to billionaires or panic or check out.
Now is the time to find and support heroes everywhere who want to stand up for humans and lead us against what is coming.
I hope this has provided some service that gets us all off our couches and somehow in your own unique way to get involved.
This piece is part of my ongoing series on how AI, capitalism, and democracy collide. Future deep-dives and practical strategies will be for paid subscribers only. If you want early access and exclusive analysis, consider upgrading.
Addendum: This morning Business Insider came out with the latest data on our economy and it proves Mo Gawdat’s warning is valid. Here is today’s data:
Here’s how I’d interpret the Business Insider report in light of Mo Gawdat’s prediction:
1. Capital Spending vs. Labor
Businesses are pouring unprecedented money into capital expenditures (CapEx)—data centers, chips, servers, cloud capacity—rather than hiring people.
Historically, when companies spent heavily, it usually meant job growth followed (factories, offices, retail). This time, the money isn’t going toward human workers but toward infrastructure that replaces human labor.
👉 This is exactly what Gawdat means by “AI replacing both the brain and the brawn.” Companies are betting their future on machines, not people.
2. Consumer Spending Down
The report shows consumer spending slowing. That’s dangerous, because consumer demand is 70% of the U.S. economy.
If wages stagnate or jobs disappear, people spend less. That means slower growth, even as corporate profits may rise.
So you get a split: the “AI owners” thrive, while ordinary households feel squeezed.
👉 That’s the hell before heaven phase: middle-class erosion before new systems (like universal basic income or AI-driven abundance) are in place.
3. Economic Power Shift
CapEx is becoming GDP’s growth engine. That means the power balance in the economy shifts further away from labor and toward capital.
The more companies automate, the fewer people they need, and the more value accrues to shareholders and tech giants.
👉 This accelerates inequality unless policy catches up.
4. The Bigger Picture
If you zoom out, this report is an early data signal of the economic transition we’ve been talking about.
Spending on machines > spending on people.
Profits and productivity up > jobs and wages down.
A few massive players (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia) drive the bulk of growth.
👉 This is why people feel anxious: the traditional link between productivity growth and broad prosperity is breaking.
The Business Insider data shows we’re entering an economy where machines are the primary investment, not people—validating Mo Gawdat’s warning that the middle class will vanish unless new systems are built.
John- Sadly but exceptionally insightful. Once again- another article to get us to think, prepare and do our part in an effort to not “just let it happen”. Well done. I really appreciate the knowledge conveyed by you here. Keep it coming my man.